Nvidia's AI Surge: Key February Earnings Insights

You’ll want to watch Nvidia’s February 26 earnings report closely, with analysts expecting explosive growth – revenue projections of $38.1 billion (up 72.52% YoY) and EPS of $0.80 (up 61.83%). The AI chip leader‘s data center segment could hit $34.0 billion in Q4 revenue, supported by its dominant 70-95% market share in AI accelerators. With a recent $50 billion buyback approval and surging stock price, understanding Nvidia’s next moves has never been more essential.

While many tech stocks have soared in 2024, Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report on February 26 will test whether the AI juggernaut can maintain its incredible momentum. Analysts expect the company to deliver another blockbuster quarter, with consensus revenue projections of $38.1 billion representing a staggering 72.52% year-over-year growth. The earnings analysis suggests EPS will reach $0.80, marking a 61.83% increase from the previous year, as Nvidia continues to capitalize on unprecedented demand for AI chips. The company’s recent buyback approval of $50 billion demonstrates significant financial confidence despite market uncertainties. Revenue growth is expected to exceed 50% this year.

All eyes on Nvidia’s February earnings as AI demand drives massive growth projections and challenges sky-high market expectations.

You’ll want to pay close attention to Nvidia’s Data Center segment, which has become the company’s primary growth engine. After posting $26.3 billion in revenue during Q3, the segment is projected to generate $34.0 billion in Q4, driven by robust GPU demand from cloud providers and the broader shift toward AI-accelerated computing. Recent analyst revisions show Data Center projections increased from $22.2 billion to $34.0 billion since January 2024. The upcoming Blackwell solution promises to address energy consumption and cost concerns, potentially strengthening Nvidia’s market position.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Blackwell is expected to contribute $75.1 billion in revenue, pushing total Data Center revenue to $183.8 billion. However, you should note there’s significant debate around these projections, with estimates ranging from $152.4 billion to $236.0 billion. The timing of Blackwell’s ramp-up and questions about its total addressable market remain key factors in these varying forecasts. The company’s quarterly revenue is anticipated to reach US$32.9 billion when results are announced, reflecting strong market demand. The company’s strong financial health is evident in its cash reserves of $38.5 billion.

Nvidia’s profitability metrics continue to impress, with guided total gross margins around 75% for Q4 fiscal 2025. While consensus estimates suggest a 300-basis-point decline in gross profit margin to 75.2% for FY 2026, operating profit margins are expected to improve. These margin trends have consistently led to positive EPS surprises, reinforcing investor confidence.

The company’s dominance in the AI accelerator market remains unchallenged, with market share estimates ranging from 70% to 95%. Despite efforts from competitors like Intel and AMD, Nvidia’s continuous innovation and strong customer loyalty have helped maintain its leadership position. The recent Stargate announcement could further cement its advantage by addressing AI model scaling concerns.

You’re likely wondering about Nvidia’s valuation after its stock has surged 106% over the past year, pushing its market cap beyond $3.6 trillion. While the current fair value estimate stands at $130 per share, the company trades at 44x FY 2025 earnings and 30x FY 2026 projections.

These multiples reflect ongoing industry tailwinds, including increased demand across healthcare, autonomous driving, and fintech sectors, plus substantial infrastructure investments in generative AI. However, you’ll need to weigh these growth prospects against potential headwinds from US regulations affecting sovereign AI spending and evolving industry dynamics.