Nvidia Q4 Earnings: Can Growth Outpace Expectations?

Nvidia’s upcoming Q4 earnings call on February 26, 2025, will test the company’s ability to maintain its explosive growth amid bubble concerns. You’ll see analysts closely watching their projected $37.5 billion revenue against market expectations of $38.036 billion. While the company’s strong Q3 performance and 72.65% year-over-year growth showcase its dominance, emerging competitors like DeepSeek raise questions about sustainability. The full story behind Nvidia’s market position reveals compelling insights.

While Nvidia has consistently shattered expectations throughout fiscal year 2025, all eyes are now on its upcoming Q4 earnings call on February 26, where the AI chipmaker faces heightened scrutiny to maintain its extraordinary growth trajectory. The company’s remarkable performance shows a staggering revenue progression from $26.0 billion in Q1 to an anticipated $37.5 billion in Q4, yet market expectations suggest an even higher figure of $38.036 billion, highlighting the immense pressure you’ll see on the company to deliver. The introduction of next-generation technologies has been remarkable, with record quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion demonstrating the company’s dominant market position.

You’ve witnessed Nvidia’s phenomenal growth story unfold quarter after quarter, with data center revenue skyrocketing to $30.8 billion in Q3, representing a 112% year-over-year increase. The company’s gross margins, while slightly declining from 78.4% in Q1 to 74.6% in Q3, remain exceptionally robust, reflecting strong pricing power in the AI chip market. However, you’ll notice the projected Q4 gross margin of 73.0% suggests a continuing modest compression. The launch of NVIDIA Spectrum-X marks a significant expansion into Ethernet-only data centers, reinforcing the company’s commitment to large-scale AI infrastructure. The company’s strong financial position is further evidenced by its return of $15.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the first half of fiscal 2025.

The numbers tell a compelling story of Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip market, but you should consider the mounting concerns about a potential AI bubble. Despite the company’s Piotroski Score of 9 indicating excellent financial health, skeptics point to the emergence of competitors like DeepSeek and question whether the current growth rates are sustainable. The year-over-year growth of 72.65% projected for Q4 FY2025 suggests continued strong momentum in the market.

You’re seeing analysts closely monitoring the upcoming Blackwell platform launch, which could be vital for maintaining Nvidia’s technological edge.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, you’ll find analysts projecting continued growth, with Q1 FY26 revenue estimated at $38.13 billion, representing a 72.52% year-over-year increase. While impressive, you’ll notice this marks a significant deceleration from the 262% growth seen in Q1 FY25. The EPS forecast of $0.80 for Q1 FY26 suggests a 61.83% increase, again showing a moderation in growth rates.

The company’s execution has been nearly flawless, with operating income surging from $16.9 billion in Q1 to $21.9 billion in Q3. You’re seeing this strength supported by robust demand for Hopper architecture and accelerated computing solutions.

The announced 10-for-1 stock split effective June 7, 2024, demonstrates management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

As you approach the Q4 earnings call, you’ll want to pay particular attention to management’s guidance and commentary on data center modernization trends, AI adoption rates, and competitive dynamics. With operating expenses expected to grow in the low-40% range for the full year and gross margins projected to remain in the mid-70% range, Nvidia’s ability to maintain its exceptional profitability metrics while investing in future growth will be essential for justifying its lofty market expectations.